Baseline-relative edges
Every probability is shown next to its unconditional baseline. A 56% hit rate means nothing until you know the base rate — we put both side by side, always.
New — overnight gap continuation stats now liveTrade the probabilities,
Trade the probabilities,
not the predictions.
Augur turns 18 years of NQ and ES futures data into clean, conditional probabilities. Every edge is shown against its baseline, with the sample size in plain sight — so you know exactly how strong a setup really is.
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Gap-up continuation — NQ
P(close above open | gap > 0.30%) · RTH session
63.4%+9.8 pts edge
Baseline (all sessions): 53.6% · N = 1,284
Monday open67.1%N = 251
Gap > 0.75%71.5%N = 388
Friday open48.9%N = 243
FOMC day54.0%N = 36
Coverage across the instruments you actually trade
NQ · Nasdaq-100ES · S&P 500RTH & ETH sessions2007 – present1m · 5m · daily
Why Augur
Edges you can actually trust
No black boxes, no curve-fit signals. Just transparent conditional statistics with the context you need to size a trade with confidence.
Sliced every way
Drill into any stat by weekday, gap size, prior-day range, session, or volatility regime. Each slice carries its own sample size so thin buckets never mislead you.
Refreshed daily
Stats recompute automatically after each cash close, rolling in the latest session so your edges reflect this week's market — not a backtest frozen in 2019.
Significance built in
Confidence intervals and minimum-N thresholds keep noise out of the headline number. We grey out edges that aren't statistically meaningful instead of overselling them.
How it works
From signup to your first edge in minutes
Pick your plan
Choose a tier from Starter to Enterprise. Higher tiers unlock deeper stat families and finer slices. Start free for 7 days, no card required.
Browse the stat catalog
Open the dashboard and explore stat families for NQ and ES — gaps, opening drives, range extensions, weekday seasonality and more. Filter to what fits your style.
Trade with context
Read the edge against its baseline, check the sample size, and size your position accordingly. Come back after the close for the next day's refreshed numbers.
54+
Distinct stat families
1.2M
Data points analyzed
18 yrs
Of NQ & ES history
2
Covered instruments (NQ & ES)
Loved by serious traders
The edge desk traders keep open all day
“I stopped guessing whether a gap would fill. Augur tells me the continuation rate by gap size and weekday, with the N right there. It's the first thing I check before the open.”
“What sold me was the honesty. When a slice has 22 samples it says so and greys out the edge. No other stats product respects significance like this.”
“We use the Enterprise API to feed our pre-market checklist for a small ES book. Daily refresh and clean baselines saved us weeks of building this ourselves.”
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The Augur Pre-Market Brief: three statistically notable setups for NQ and ES, delivered before the open. Free, and a taste of the full platform.
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